A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
